The UK’s most comprehensive picture yet of how the climate could change over the next century was yesterday launched by Environment Secretary Michael Gove.



The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) include:

UK’s most comprehensive projections of climate change
Data gives most detailed picture yet of temperature, rainfall and sea level rise over next century
Cutting-edge science to help businesses and homes plan for the future
Using the latest science from the Met Office and around the world, the UK Climate Projections 2018 illustrate a range of future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.

To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The high emission scenario shows:

Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer
The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050
Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100
Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter
Sea levels are projected to rise over the 21st century and beyond under all emission scenarios – meaning we can expect to see an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels around the UK coastline. Even in the low emission scenario, the projections show the UK’s average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3 °C higher by the end of the century.

The UK already leads the world in tackling climate change – with emissions reduced by more than 40 % since 1990. However these projections show a future we could face without further action.

UKCP18 can now be used as a tool to guide decision-making and boost resilience – whether that’s through increasing flood defences, designing new infrastructure or adjusting ways of farming for drier summers.

Speaking from the Science Museum in London, Environment Secretary Michael Gove yesterday said: "This cutting-edge science opens our eyes to the extent of the challenge we face, and shows us a future we want to avoid.

“The UK is already a global leader in tackling climate change, cutting emissions by more than 40 % since 1990 – but we must go further.

“By having this detailed picture of our changing climate, we can ensure we have the right infrastructure to cope with weather extremes, homes and businesses can adapt, and we can make decisions for the future accordingly.”

Yesterday’s projections are the first major update of climate projections in nearly 10 years, building on the success of UKCP09 and ensuring the most up-to-date scientific evidence informs decision-making.

With climate change a global challenge, for the first time, UKCP presents international projections, allowing other nations to use this data to gauge future risks for food supply chains, or check rainfall projections for the likelihood of localised flooding.

Defra’s Chief Scientific Adviser Ian Boyd said: “Climate change will affect everybody. UKCP18 is designed to help everybody make better decisions, from those buying a house to people making large investments in infrastructure. It has been produced using state-of-the-art methods.”

Met Office Chief Scientist Stephen Belcher said: “The new science in UKCP18 enables us to move from looking at the trends associated with climate change, to describing how seasonal weather patterns will change. For example, heatwaves like the one we experienced in the summer of 2018 could be normal for the UK by mid-century.”

Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer

Sounds lovely. Bring it on.


(Sad to see Gove falling for all this modelling bilge from the climate alarmist lobby)

What a utter waste of time and effort coming up with what could happen and might happen. I thing a new mini ice age could soon be upon us or that we could be hit by a asteroid or we may die out because of a super volcano. We were told that by now all of the artic would be ice free. We were told by al Gore that by now we would not see snow and 8 feet of snow has just been dumped in the USA. the climate has always changed and always will and it is not CO2 and not that is responsible.

Venus atmosphere some 96% Carbon Dioxide and not a human in sight, however it is closer to the sun......clue there somewhere.

Welcome to Southport. The home of climate change denying idiots. And Gerrard24 if you are going to post utter garbage on here, could you at least try and grasp the basics of grammar and how to string a simple sentence together please?

A lot of people, including that buffoon Trump, confuse climate and weather.


Yes, the Earth has always had 'natural' cycles of climate change, but the stats show that changes in recent decades are influenced significantly by the amount of CO2 that is produced by humans, mainly by burning fossil fuels.


Meanwhile, let's keep fracking so we can burn the gas produced and emit even more CO2.

Originally Posted by Lamparilla

A lot of people, including that buffoon Trump, confuse climate and weather.


Yes, the Earth has always had 'natural' cycles of climate change, but the stats show that changes in recent decades are influenced significantly by the amount of CO2 that is produced by humans, mainly by burning fossil fuels.


Meanwhile, let's keep fracking so we can burn the gas produced and emit even more CO2.

Trees absorb CO2 and release oxygen, fossil fuels are the produce of long gone forests buried deep underground.

One of the main protestors on here about the use of fossil fuels (yes you've guessed the cycling fool) makes a living out of selling/fitting Woodburning Stoves. I don't know whether he has the brains to think where the wood comes from but funnily enough TREES. Not ones that have been dead for millions of years but trees that are cut down thus engineering the inability to get rid of CO2. The biggest Fools are the Fools that champion something being done to solve a problem THEY are causing.


I can't wait for the Pnp words of wisdom (he must come out with some sooner or later under the law of averages).